PSEi (Philippine Stock Exchange Index)
The PSEi closed at 6,125.72 on July 2, up 56.46 points (+0.93%), extending its recent gains. Mining & Oil led the market with a strong +2.45% rise, followed by Services at +1.16%. Financials (+0.93%), Holding Firms (+0.82%), and Property (+0.80%) also posted solid gains, while Industrials slipped slightly (-0.11%). The index has been on a broadly positive trend year-to-date, and some brokerages are forecasting the PSEi could reach 6,800 points by the end of 2026.
Sector closes for July 2:
- All Shares: 3,343.03 (+18.25, +0.55%)
- Financials: 1,885.46 (+17.43, +0.93%)
- Industrial: 8,389.03 (-9.29, -0.11%)
- Holding Firms: 4,349.20 (+35.36, +0.82%)
- Property: 1,872.78 (+14.85, +0.80%)
- Services: 3,247.96 (+37.31, +1.16%)
- Mining & Oil: 13,979.56 (+334.35, +2.45%)
Some reports suggest the rally was supported by news that the US and Iran had paused retaliatory strikes ahead of peace talks in Doha, easing geopolitical tension and lifting market sentiment — though this should be treated as one possible factor rather than a confirmed cause.
Currency (USD/PHP)
As of late July 2, the US dollar was trading around PHP 61.4–61.6, with some reports pointing to a slight peso strengthening from the previous day. Over the past few weeks, the peso has generally weakened against the dollar, which has boosted remittance values for OFW families while adding upward pressure on import prices and the cost of living.
🇺🇸 Overnight: Wall Street (July 2 close)
As context heading into the Manila morning session: US June nonfarm payrolls reportedly came in well below expectations at +57,000 jobs versus a forecast of +113,000. The weaker jobs data reinforced expectations that the Fed will hold or cut rates, and the Dow Jones closed at a fresh record high, up 594.83 points (+1.14%). The S&P 500 was roughly flat, while the Nasdaq fell about 0.8% on continued weakness in semiconductor stocks. With the US heading into the Independence Day holiday, spillover into Asian markets may be limited.
Inflation
The latest available CPI reading, for May, showed inflation at +6.8% year-on-year, down from +7.2% in April but still above the government’s 2.0–4.0% target range for a third straight month. The reading came in below the BSP’s earlier forecast range of 7.1–7.9%, fueling some hope that inflation may be peaking, though price pressures remain elevated overall.
Growth & Policy
Full-year 2025 GDP growth came in at +4.4%, well short of the government’s 5.5–6.5% target. Delayed public spending linked to corruption scandals, along with weaker consumer and investor confidence, have been cited as contributing factors. Finance Secretary Frederick Go has expressed confidence that the Philippines can achieve at least 5% growth in 2026, citing resilient fundamentals and strength in key sectors.
🌏 ASEAN Markets Snapshot (for reference)
Southeast Asian equity markets have diverged sharply in the first half of 2026.
- 🇮🇩 Indonesia (IDX Composite): Closed at 5,744.56 on July 2 (+49.44, +0.87%), rebounding on the day. However, the index is down roughly 30% year-to-date, the weakest performance in the region. Contributing factors reported include MSCI’s May warning over governance concerns and removal of several Indonesian names from key indexes, as well as a new law granting legal immunity to buyers of bonds issued by state investment fund Danantara, which raised governance and transparency concerns. Inflation has also reportedly been approaching the upper end of Bank Indonesia’s target range.
- 🇻🇳 Vietnam (VN-Index): Closed at 1,866.35 on July 2 (-0.86, -0.05%), essentially flat, with the index consolidating near its 52-week range of 1,862.01–1,873.87. Tailwinds cited include Moody’s recent upgrade of Vietnam’s outlook from “stable” to “positive,” and anticipation of FTSE Russell’s reclassification of Vietnam to Secondary Emerging Market status, reportedly effective September 21, 2026.
- 🇹🇭 Thailand (SET Index): Closed at 1,593.56 on July 2 (+5.33). SET50 rose to 1,046.72 (+11.48) and SETHD to 1,439.66 (+41.02), with large-cap and high-dividend stocks outperforming. Easing oil-related inflation concerns amid Middle East peace talk optimism were reportedly supportive, while lower oil prices weighed on energy names and continued foreign fund outflows capped further gains.
- 🇸🇬 Singapore (STI): Closed at 5,217.15 on July 2 (+55.65, +1.08%), with turnover of roughly SGD 1.59 billion and 329 advancers versus 239 decliners. Singapore has reportedly overtaken Indonesia as the region’s largest market by capitalization, though individual names like ST Engineering and Venture Corporation were softer on the day.
- 🇲🇾 Malaysia (FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI): Closed at 1,661.83 on July 2 (+5.00, +0.30%), a modest gain following July 1’s close of 1,665.83 (+0.12%). The index remains within its 52-week range of 1,510.14–1,771.25.
2026 marks the Philippines’ turn as ASEAN chair, succeeding Malaysia, and the first full year with Timor-Leste as the bloc’s 11th member. For the ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam), easing tariff impacts and supportive fiscal/monetary policy are generally expected to support growth in 2026, though Thailand and Indonesia continue to see softness in durable goods consumption amid high interest rates and tighter lending standards.
Key Takeaways
- 🇵🇭 Stocks: PSEi extended gains to 6,125.72 (+0.93%), led by mining & oil
- 🇵🇭 Currency: Peso remains on a weakening trend, trading in the upper 61 range vs. the dollar
- 🇵🇭 Inflation: Possible signs of peaking, but still above the target range
- 🇵🇭 Growth: 2025 fell short of target; government expects 5%+ growth in 2026
- 🌏 ASEAN: Sharp divergence — Vietnam leading, Indonesia lagging
This update is based on publicly available information as of the evening of July 2 through the morning of July 3, 2026 (Manila time). Figures are preliminary and as reported at the time of writing; final figures may differ.
Sources: PSE Composite & Sector Indices, SET (Stock Exchange of Thailand), IDX Composite (Yahoo Finance), SGX (Singapore Exchange), VN-Index (HOSE, Yahoo Finance), FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (Yahoo Finance)