PSEi Surges 1.9% on the Week, Blowing Past the March High as Foreign Money Pours Back In
Hi, this is PinchuTV — a Philippines addict slowly building a PSE portfolio on the long road to an SIRV (Special Investor’s Resident Visa) and a move to Manila. Here’s how the week went.
The PSEi This Week (July 13–17)
The index stumbled out of the gate on renewed Middle East tensions, but once it broke through the 6,300 wall on Wednesday it never looked back. Friday delivered a 1.25% surge to 6,404.11 — clearing not just 6,300 but the March 5 recovery high of 6,380 in one go. The week ended +117.41 points (+1.87%), the third straight weekly gain.
Mon 7/13: 6,265.72 (-0.33%) — US-Iran strikes near the Strait of Hormuz revived oil fears; the index stalled just below 6,300 Tue 7/14: 6,256.02 (-0.15%) — thin trade (P4.05B value turnover) as investors stayed on the sidelines Wed 7/15: 6,302.50 (+0.74%) — the 6,300 barrier finally gives way, foreign buying continues Thu 7/16: 6,325.15 (+0.35%) — soft US CPI lifts the market to its best close since March 5 Fri 7/17: 6,404.11 (+1.25%) — property-led rally takes out the March high
Previous Friday (7/10) close: 6,286.70 → this Friday (7/17): 6,404.11 (+117.41 points, +1.87%)
Friday’s rally was nearly unanimous: property jumped 2.62% and holding firms 2.07%, with every sector green except mining & oil (-0.82%). Turnover was P6.18 billion, foreigners bought a hefty P857 million net, and advancers led 103 to 85. The index leader? Ayala Land, up 5.72% — yes, the second-worst position in my portfolio.
The Big Stories
- US inflation cools — and Fed hike odds all but vanish
This was the story of the week. Softer-than-expected US inflation data sent the market-implied probability of another Fed rate hike tumbling from 43% to just 10%. Risk appetite for emerging markets came roaring back, and the PSEi rode the wave through 6,300.
- A tense start: US-Iran strikes return
Monday opened with reports of renewed strikes between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz. Oil-price fears pushed the index lower, and foreigners dumped P673 million net. But from Tuesday onward the flows flipped: four straight sessions of net foreign buying, accelerating into the close of the week (+P230M → +P280M → +P195M → +P857M). The early pessimism wasn’t just unwound — it was steamrolled.
- First-half earnings season kicks off
Corporate results start rolling in next week. The market has been buying the expectation of strong numbers — from here, it gets sorted by actual results. For my portfolio, the bank earnings (BDO, BPI) are the ones to watch.
Also worth noting: JG Summit (JGS) — a holding of mine, unfortunately — sank 3.19% on Tuesday, and PLDT jumped 3.86% on Thursday to lead the telcos.
Portfolio Summary (as of Friday’s close)
The portfolio now sits at -12.0%, a big 1.9-point improvement from last week’s -13.9% — and more than a full point of that came on Friday alone (it was -13.1% as of Thursday). It’s been a while since I’ve seen a number starting with -12, and rarer still for the portfolio to beat the index’s weekly gain.
Progress toward the SIRV target (USD 75,000 in PSE-listed shares) is still hovering around 10%. But at least the portfolio didn’t get left behind by the index this week — I’ll take it.
No trades this week.
The Damage Report (biggest unrealized losses)
FRUIT (Fruitas) -36.7% JFC (Jollibee) -31.9% ALI (Ayala Land) -30.4% SM (SM Investments) -30.2% JGS (JG Summit) -28.9%
Same names as last week, but the numbers moved. ALI’s Friday surge (+5.72% to P17.00, the top index gainer) lifted it from the mid-minus-30s to -30.4% in a single week, and SM and JGS improved too. Fruitas went the other way, sinking to -36.7% and cementing its hold on the unwanted top spot.
The Rescue Squad (biggest unrealized gains)
DD (DoubleDragon) +62.8% LTG (LT Group) +56.1% MYNLD (Maynilad) +28.0% GLO (Globe Telecom) +27.1% PSE (Philippine Stock Exchange) +24.2%
Same five names, but Globe’s Friday pop moved it past PSE into fourth. Maynilad and PSE gave back a little to profit-taking; the DD-LTG top duo just kept extending.
Notable Moves (week-on-week)
Up
AC 476.00 → 508.50 (+32.50, +6.8%) — the week’s biggest riser, back above P500 GLO 1,810 → 1,870 (+60) — P46 of that on Friday alone JFC 145.80 → 149.90 (+4.10) — the slow grind higher continues, knocking on P150 BDO 124.20 → 127.00 (+2.80) — firmly in the green now at +2.3% MER 585.00 (+15.00 on Friday) — position now up 3.8% BPI 103.00 → 104.00 (+1.00) — third straight weekly gain
Soft
MYNLD 19.28 (-0.32 on Friday) — profit-taking near the highs PSE 204.00 (-1.00 on Friday) — taking a breather FRUIT 0.65 — the slow bleed continues
Stock Comments
BDO (BDO Unibank) finished the week at P127.00, putting the position at +2.3%. Two weeks ago I was agonizing over the last P0.13 to breakeven; now it’s comfortably above water. But the real test starts next week with bank earnings. Not relaxing until the results are out.
JFC (Jollibee) closed at P149.90 (+4.10 on the week), knocking on the door of P150. After going nowhere last week, it finally moved. The Fed story matters here too: fading rate-hike expectations are exactly the relief a cost-squeezed restaurant operator needs. My average cost of P219 is still a long way up, but the plan doesn’t change — every time dividends pile up, I buy 10 more shares. This is a long game.
GLO (Globe Telecom) jumped 2.52% on Friday to P1,870, lifting the position to +27%. The GCash IPO story is fully intact, and this quiet workhorse keeps getting more valuable.
🇵🇭 This Week’s Deep Dive: Why Collapsing Fed Hike Odds Matter for My Losers
Let me unpack the US angle, because it leads straight back to the worst performers in this portfolio.
The chain works like this: if US rates have peaked, there’s less reason for capital to flee emerging markets → downward pressure on the peso eases → the BSP (policy rate: 4.75%) has less need to keep hiking just to defend the currency. You could see it happening in real time this week — three straight days of net foreign inflows into the PSEi.
And when the rate anchor comes off, the stocks that bounce hardest are the ones that high rates sank in the first place: property (ALI, SM) and inflation-squeezed consumer names (JFC, MONDE, URC). In other words, the regulars on my damage report. Core inflation at 4.4% is still a live domestic risk, but the external environment has clearly started turning — and that’s the half of the equation I’ve been waiting on.
What I’m Watching Next Week
- First-half earnings season ramps up, starting with the banks (BDO, BPI)
- After a steep run, can the PSEi consolidate above 6,400? (6,500 is next)
- BSP rate-hike chatter with core inflation running at 4.4%
- The US-Iran talks in Doha, and oil prices
- Any news on the GCash (Mynt) and Maya IPOs
Final Thought
Last week I asked whether the index could clear the 6,300 wall. It didn’t just clear it — it left the March high behind too, with Ayala Land of all names leading Friday’s charge. Three straight weekly gains, foreign money flowing back in, and the portfolio’s best week in months: -13.9% to -12.0%. BDO is settled in the green and JFC is knocking on P150. Earnings season is where the market checks its answers. Slow and steady.
Disclaimer
This post documents a personal investment journal and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing in the Philippine stock market involves currency, country, and other risks. Invest at your own risk. Figures are as of the July 17, 2026 close.