BSP Hikes to 5%, the Peso Breaks 62, and Vietnam Just Keeps Winning
Hi, this is PinchuTV — a Philippines addict slowly building a PSE portfolio on the long road to an SIRV (Special Investor’s Resident Visa). This week I’m zooming out: one wrap covering seven Asian markets, from Manila’s rough week to Ho Chi Minh City’s victory lap.
The Big Picture
Three forces drove Asia this week. First, the US–Iran conflict entered its seventh month with a new “economic D-Day” of financial sanctions and fresh Iranian threats over the Strait of Hormuz — though, notably, oil actually eased, with Brent drifting into the high-$80s as the week’s escalation stayed rhetorical. Second, Jackson Hole: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his first outing at the symposium to warn that inflation is still too high, reviving US rate worries and pushing the 10-year Treasury back toward 4.7%. Third, Friday’s MSCI rebalancing sent mechanical flows through the whole region.
Put together, it was a week where the strong got stronger and the vulnerable got punished. Guess which side my beloved Philippines landed on.
🇵🇭 Philippines — Three Broken Milestones
The PSEi fell 4.52% (6,238.46 → 5,956.33), by far the worst in the region, closing below 6,000 for the first time since June 24. Three milestones broke in five days: the BSP hiked its policy rate 25bp to 5.00% on Thursday (third straight hike, aimed preemptively at El Niño and minimum-wage inflation risks), the peso crashed through 62 to a record-low close of 62.265 on Friday, and the index lost the 6,000 handle. July’s trade deficit widened to nearly $6 billion, feeding the oil-import → weak-peso → inflation → more-hikes loop. Foreign selling accelerated from P2.32B Thursday to P3.51B Friday (MSCI flows included).
Two details worth keeping. On Thursday’s rout, exactly one index stock closed green: Ayala Land — the property name high rates are supposed to hurt most. When the most-punished sector stops going down on bad news, I pay attention. And Jollibee (JFC), my largest holding, dropped 4.3% Friday to exactly P150.00. Between the mid-August guidance cut (2026 store openings trimmed to 1,000–1,100) and a record Q2 profit, JFC is a company deliberately slowing down to survive a 5%-rate world. Painful to hold at -31%, but the plan doesn’t change.
My portfolio ended the week at -14.5%. No trades.
🇲🇾 Malaysia — A Quiet Week, By Design
The FBM KLCI slipped just 0.61% (1,736.48 → 1,725.88) in a three-day week — Tuesday was the Prophet Muhammad’s birthday holiday and Monday Aug 31 is Merdeka Day, so Friday’s selling (decliners 917 vs 405, turnover jumping to RM6.5B) was mostly pre-long-weekend housekeeping. The ringgit quietly strengthened about 0.3% to 4.023–4.027 per dollar, touching a two-month high midweek. Petronas posted H1 net profit of RM27.2B (+4%), and July trade hit a record RM364.7B with exports up a stunning 38% — the 75th straight monthly surplus. Boring index, humming economy.
🇸🇬 Singapore — Flat Stocks, Muscular Currency
The STI ended essentially flat at 5,699.93 (about +0.2% on the week), pausing after its record run. The real story is the Singapore dollar at 1.2705 per USD — its strongest in roughly 11 years, up about 1.5% in a month as safe-haven money keeps arriving. July core inflation accelerated to 2.0% (from 1.6%) on an electricity-tariff reset, but came in below forecasts. With Q2 GDP at +5.9% and the government upgrading 2026 growth guidance to 4.5–5.5%, Singapore remains the region’s fortress — and its tourists’ wallets feel it.
🇭🇰 Hong Kong — Alibaba’s $10 Billion Ask
The Hang Seng fell about 1.6% (26,009.46 → 25,584.79), and most of the damage came Monday: Alibaba launched an HK$80 billion (~US$10B) share placement — one of Hong Kong’s largest ever — and tech sank 1.89% under the supply. Meituan offered a bright spot, swinging back to a Q2 profit on +14.4% revenue. The Hong Kong dollar sat near 7.84, the weak side of its 7.75–7.85 peg, which means Warsh’s hawkishness feeds straight into local funding costs. A market caught between Beijing’s recovery story and Washington’s rates.
🇮🇩 Indonesia — The V-Shaped Protest Week
The IHSG went on a round trip: down 1.48% Wednesday as Jakarta braced for large parliament protests, then +1.81% Thursday when the demonstrations ended peacefully — finishing the week almost exactly flat at 6,518.12 (vs 6,525.69). Bank Indonesia had already left rates at 5.75% for a third straight meeting with inflation tame at 2.88%, and the rupiah closed the week at 17,693, basically unchanged. A reminder that in Indonesia, politics can move the tape faster than economics — in both directions.
🇹🇭 Thailand — Cheap Money, Heavy Index
The SET lost 1.58% (1,613.78 → 1,588.22) despite the Bank of Thailand holding its policy rate at just 1.00% — the loosest in the region — and July exports surging 21.6% for a 25th straight monthly gain. Big-cap tech and transport names (DELTA, AOT) dragged the index while the baht slipped about 0.7% to nearly 33 per dollar into Jackson Hole. With tourism still running ~3% below last year, Thailand has the region’s cheapest money and some of its weakest sentiment.
🇻🇳 Vietnam — Seven Green Days
The star of the week, again. The VN-Index rose 3.62% (1,768.12 → 1,832.12), its best week in about four months, closing higher for a seventh straight session — the longest streak this year. The fuel: FTSE Russell’s emerging-market upgrade takes effect September 21, with 100+ Vietnamese stocks joining the indices and estimates of up to $6 billion in eventual inflows. Foreigners net-bought VND951.7B this week, trading value jumped 27.4%, and the dong held steady near 26,075. Markets are now closed through the September 2 National Day break, reopening September 3 — a five-day pause at the top of a beautiful run.
The Scoreboard (Aug 24–28)
🇻🇳 VN-Index +3.62% (1,832.12) 🇸🇬 STI +0.2% (5,699.93) 🇮🇩 IHSG -0.1% (6,518.12) 🇲🇾 FBM KLCI -0.61% (1,725.88) 🇹🇭 SET -1.58% (1,588.22) 🇭🇰 Hang Seng -1.6% (25,584.79) 🇵🇭 PSEi -4.52% (5,956.33)
One region, one week, a seven-point spread between the best and worst performer. This is why I keep watching all seven.
What I’m Watching Next Week
- Philippine August CPI — the BSP expects 5.5–6.5%; the print decides whether a fourth hike is coming
- Any FX intervention to defend the peso after its record-low 62.265
- Whether post-MSCI flows let the PSEi reclaim 6,000
- Vietnam’s September 3 reopen after the holiday — does the FTSE momentum survive a five-day pause?
- Follow-through from Warsh’s Jackson Hole hawkishness on Asian currencies
Final Thought
The same week, the same region, and two completely different movies: Manila breaking milestones on the way down, Ho Chi Minh City breaking them on the way up. The lesson I keep relearning is that “ASEAN” is not one trade — it’s seven very different stories that happen to share a time zone. My money is parked in this week’s worst performer, and honestly, that’s fine. Cycles turn. Slow and steady.
Disclaimer
This post documents a personal investment journal and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing in Asian stock markets involves currency, country, and other risks. Invest at your own risk. Figures are as of the August 28, 2026 close.
Data notes: index closes are cross-checked against at least two sources per market (PSEi via BusinessWorld/Manila Bulletin/Manila Times; STI via SGX’s official site; KLCI via Bernama-affiliated media; IHSG via multiple Indonesian outlets; SET via Kaohoon/SET; HSI via Xinhua/China Daily with minor source variance midweek; VN-Index via Vietnam News/Nhan Dan). The STI’s prior-week close (5,688.96) is back-calculated from Monday-open reporting.