Stocks Held, the Peso Didn’t: PSEi Slips 0.5% as the Peso Hits Record Lows and Oil Tops $100
Hi, this is PinchuTV — a Philippines addict slowly building a PSE portfolio on the long road to an SIRV (Special Investor’s Resident Visa) and a move to Manila. Here’s how the week went.
The PSEi This Week (September 7–11)
On the index alone, this was a quiet week. The PSEi drifted lower Monday, clawed back above 6,100 on Tuesday and Wednesday, then gave it all back Thursday and Friday as Brent crude blew through $100 and the peso sank to fresh record lows. Friday’s close of 6,061.81 left the index down 28.79 points (-0.47%) on the week.
Mon 9/7: 6,083.68 (-0.11%) — cautious start, thin trade Tue 9/8: 6,105.99 (+0.37%) — bargain hunting lifts the index back above 6,100; peso hits a record 62.625 Wed 9/9: 6,116.53 (+0.17%) — ICTSI tops the turnover list and props up the index; Brent crosses $100 for the first time since July Thu 9/10: 6,099.23 (-0.28%) — selling in SM, Ayala Corp, JG Summit and GT Capital weighs Fri 9/11: 6,061.81 (-0.61%) — Brent near $108, peso at a record 62.68, financials -1.58%
Previous Friday (9/4) close: 6,090.60 → this Friday (9/11): 6,061.81 (-28.79 points, -0.47%)
The real action was in the currency. The peso set record lows on Tuesday (62.625) and Friday (62.68) — by GMA News’ count, Tuesday’s was already the 23rd record of the year. Friday’s turnover was only about P5.8 billion excluding block trades. Nobody was panicking; the sellers were just quietly leaving.
The Big Stories
- Oil is back above $100
With the US–Iran war looking increasingly protracted, Brent broke $100 on Wednesday and was near $108 by Friday. For a country that imports nearly all of its oil, that means costlier fuel, power and freight — and more dollars needed to pay for it, which is exactly why the peso keeps sliding. Pump prices are expected to rise by up to P5 per liter on September 15.
- August inflation eases to 6.1%, but the BSP debate is wide open
August CPI came in at 6.1%, the fourth straight month of easing, but still far above the BSP’s 2–4% target. Rice inflation is accelerating at 19.4%. The BSP hiked to 5.00% on August 27 — its third hike this year — and this week bank economists split on the next move: BDO and Chinabank expect a pause in October, while BPI sees two more hikes to 5.50% by year-end.
- MUFG gets a universal banking license
A quiet story that I think matters more than the headlines suggest: Japan’s MUFG Bank was granted a universal banking license in the Philippines, the top tier that covers everything from lending to investment banking. When a Japanese megabank commits at that level, it’s a long-term vote of confidence in Philippine growth. For someone chasing an SIRV, that’s reassuring.
Also this week: KKR sold roughly 715 million First Gen shares in a block at P36 apiece, sending FGEN down 11.9% on Friday (not a holding of mine). Meralco cut electricity rates for a second straight month. And the Vice President’s impeachment trial resumes Monday.
Portfolio Summary (as of Friday’s close)
The portfolio sits at -15.76%. Back-calculating from last Friday’s closes, the prior week was about -14.2%, so roughly 1.6 points worse.
Market value fell 1.86% on the week versus -0.47% for the index — nearly four times the market’s decline. The reason is simple: my largest positions (BDO, JFC, SM, JGS) all landed near the top of the losers’ list, and I don’t own ICTSI, the stock that held the index up.
Progress toward the SIRV target (USD 75,000 in PSE-listed shares) slipped to 9.7%. The weak peso inflates the requirement to about P4.7 million in local terms. It’s been a while since I was below 10%.
No trades this week, but plenty of dividend activity:
- LTG went ex-dividend Monday (P0.30/share, 2,000 shares, payable Sep 18)
- SHNG went ex-dividend Wednesday (P0.0921/share, 2,000 shares, payable Sep 24)
- BDO went ex-dividend Friday (P1.10/share quarterly, 443 shares, payable Sep 25)
- AREIT’s P0.63/share dividend was paid Wednesday (100 shares)
Cash on hand is P523. Once the dividends land, the plan is the usual one: buy JFC, ten shares at a time.
The Damage Report (biggest unrealized losses)
JGS (JG Summit) -41.9% SM (SM Investments) -37.4% ALI (Ayala Land) -37.3% FRUIT (Fruitas) -36.6% JFC (Jollibee) -32.4%
Back in July, Fruitas was the permanent last-place holder. Over the summer, JGS and SM overtook it. JGS was the week’s worst performer in the whole portfolio at -7.0% — $108 oil is a direct hit to jet fuel costs at Cebu Pacific, and management had already flagged airline fuel pressure in early September. Fruitas, for once, didn’t hurt: it ticked up from P0.64 to P0.65.
The Rescue Squad (biggest unrealized gains)
DD (DoubleDragon) +74.0% LTG (LT Group) +64.3% PSE (Philippine Stock Exchange) +29.7% MYNLD (Maynilad) +20.6% AP (Aboitiz Power) +12.4%
DD was essentially flat in a down market (12.14 → 12.08) and kept its +74%. LTG closed the week exactly where it started (15.16 → 15.16) despite going ex-dividend — the price normally drops by the payout, so holding flat is effectively a gain. PSE rose 3.4% to move into third, helped by a 19.8% first-half profit increase and a P5.50 dividend.
Notable Moves (week-on-week)
Up
MER 462.00 → 480.00 (+18.00, +3.9%) — rate cut for a second month, and the stock still rallied PSE 206.00 → 213.00 (+7.00, +3.4%) — strong first half, P5.50 dividend DMC 7.98 → 8.14 (+0.16, +2.0%) — top index gainer on Thursday FRUIT 0.64 → 0.65 (+1.6%) / MONDE 6.85 → 6.91 (+0.9%) — small gains
Soft
JGS 20.60 → 19.16 (-1.44, -7.0%) — worst of the week; jet fuel and naphtha both hurt SSI 2.19 → 2.08 (-5.0%) — a regular on the losers’ list lately SM 562.00 → 535.00 (-27.00, -4.8%) — named as a Thursday index drag BDO 120.90 → 115.10 (-5.80, -4.8%) — Friday’s -2.54% includes the P1.10 ex-dividend adjustment AC 500.00 → 480.00 (-20.00, -4.0%) — back below P500 JFC 151.00 → 147.50 (-3.50, -2.3%) — below P150 again MYNLD 18.68 → 18.16 (-2.8%) / SHNG 3.25 → 3.15 (-3.1%, incl. ex-dividend)
Stock Comments
BDO (BDO Unibank) closed at P115.10, and the position went from -2.6% to -7.3%. Strip out the P1.10 dividend adjustment and Friday’s real decline was closer to 1.6%. Still, the textbook says higher rates help banks — but right now, worries about slowing growth and foreign selling are winning. When the peso slides, the first thing foreigners sell is the most liquid bank stock. I’m treating this as a patience test.
JFC (Jollibee) finished at P147.50 (-3.50 on the week). The market hasn’t reacted much to the September 1 announcement that JFC will spin off its international business and list it in Hong Kong; what it is reacting to is oil and the peso, both of which push up ingredient and logistics costs. August results showed record quarterly profit, but management trimmed this year’s new-store target from 1,200–1,300 to 1,000–1,100. Offense to defense. My plan doesn’t change: ten more shares with every dividend.
MER (Meralco) gets its first solo mention. It cut electricity rates for a second straight month, and the stock still rose 3.9% — the market reading it as “they have room to cut.” In an oil-driven inflation scare, a regulated utility with pricing power gets bought, the same pattern we saw with Aboitiz Power in July. The position improved from -18.1% to -14.9%. I own 20 shares. Same regret as July.
🇵🇭 This Week’s Deep Dive: A Domestic-Demand Portfolio in a 62.68-Peso World
This week’s main character wasn’t a stock. It was the peso.
What I own is banks (BDO, BPI), property (ALI, SM, DD, SHNG, RCR, AREIT), telecom (GLO), utilities (AP, MER, MYNLD) and food and restaurants (JFC, URC, MONDE, FRUIT). Almost 100% domestic demand. A weak peso reaches this portfolio through two channels.
Channel one: imported costs. That’s the food and restaurant group — JFC, URC, MONDE — where imported ingredients, packaging and fuel eat into margins. JGS is in this channel too, through naphtha for petrochemicals and jet fuel for Cebu Pacific.
Channel two: foreign selling. When global investors cut Philippine exposure, they sell what they can sell fast — the big liquid names: BDO, SM, AC, ALI. Friday’s foreign selling concentrated in financials was exactly that.
On the other side, two months since July have shown which names can defend. The utilities (AP, MER, MYNLD) can pass costs through. DD and LTG have earnings and dividends holding the floor. This week, BDO and JFC alone accounted for about P4,900 of the decline — more than half of it. Flip that around: if those two turn, the whole portfolio turns.
The double bind hasn’t changed: a weaker peso raises the dollar-based SIRV requirement in peso terms. But a weaker peso also means every yen I send over buys more shares. The rule stays the same — not “buy because it’s cheap,” but “find out why it’s cheap, then buy.” This week’s answer was oil and the peso. If next week’s answer is the same, at least it’s an easy market to read.
What I’m Watching Next Week
- The FOMC on September 15–16: if sticky US inflation cements “higher for longer,” the peso gets weaker
- The September 15 fuel price hike (up to P5/liter) and its pass-through to prices
- Whether the peso tests 63, and how the BSP responds
- The Vice President’s impeachment trial resuming Monday, and the political risk that comes with it
- BDO (Sep 25) and LTG (Sep 18) dividend payments — fuel for the next JFC purchase
- Whether the PSEi can hold the 6,000 line
Final Thought
The index lost 0.47%; the portfolio lost 1.86%. In July I got to brag, a little, about beating the index in a down week. This week was the reverse — BDO, JFC, SM and JGS all sold off together. But DD, LTG, PSE and MER held the line, and three holdings went ex-dividend without incident. Prices fell. Share counts and dividends didn’t. Slow and steady.
Disclaimer
This post documents a personal investment journal and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing in the Philippine stock market involves currency, country, and other risks. Invest at your own risk. Figures are as of the September 11, 2026 close. Prior-week closes are from the PSE’s official daily quotation report for September 4, 2026; last week’s -14.2% is a back-calculated estimate. Dividend dates are from aggregator sites (filgit.com, dividends.ph, stockanalysis.com) and have not been verified against PSE EDGE disclosures.