🇵🇭 PinchuTV Philippine Market Wrap — Week of July 27–31, 2026

One Presidential Speech, a 20% Crater in Meralco, and a Portfolio That Somehow Won the Week Again

Hi, this is PinchuTV — a Philippines addict slowly building a PSE portfolio on the long road to an SIRV (Special Investor’s Resident Visa) and a move to Manila. Here’s how the week went.

The PSEi This Week (July 27–31)

A week that opened with a presidential speech and closed with a record-debt headline. The index clawed its way back to 6,353 midweek, then gave it all back and more. Friday’s close of 6,236.44 sealed a second straight weekly decline: -44.57 points (-0.71%).

Mon 7/27: 6,314.90 (+0.54%) — relief bounce as Middle East tensions eased; President Marcos delivered his SONA (State of the Nation Address) after the close Tue 7/28: 6,304.03 (-0.17%) — the SONA’s promise to scrap the “system loss charge” from power bills sent Meralco down 4.66%; industrials dragged Wed 7/29: 6,353.04 (+0.78%) — bargain hunting plus hopes the BSP can ease off the hawkishness Thu 7/30: 6,305.75 (-0.74%) — the Fed held rates (9–3 vote) and Meralco cratered 13.12% in a single session Fri 7/31: 6,236.44 (-1.10%) — record government debt (P19.07 trillion), a court freeze on the Metro Manila wage hike, and next week’s index rebalancing all weighed

Previous Friday (7/24) close: 6,281.01 → this Friday (7/31): 6,236.44 (-44.57 points, -0.71%)

The peso, which hit an all-time low of 61.847 to the dollar the previous Friday, recovered to around 61.3. Small mercies — Brent is still above $100.

The Big Stories

1. The SONA wipes 20% off Meralco

The story of the week. In his address, President Marcos called on Congress to remove the system loss charge — the fee that passes the cost of electricity lost in transmission on to consumers — from power bills. Great news for households; brutal for the utility. Meralco fell day after day: -4.66% to P562 on Tuesday, then a stunning -13.12% to P480 on Thursday. Week over week: P600 → P480, a 20% collapse. Nothing in the company’s operations changed. One speech did all of that. (Yes, I own 20 shares. More on that below.)

2. BDO posts a record first half

The bank earnings I’d been waiting for. BDO reported a record P40.7 billion first-half net income on Monday — loans up 15%, deposits up 13%, the core business firing on all cylinders. The stock’s reaction was a polite +1.2%, partly because the bank also stacked up extra loan-loss provisions “just in case.” BPI, which reported in mid-July, came in flat at P32.8 billion.

3. BSP sees July inflation at 5.6–6.6%

The central bank’s month-ahead forecast puts July inflation at 5.6–6.6%, down from 6.9% in June. Still far above the 2–4% target, but if the official number (due August 5) confirms the peak is in, the pressure for more hikes on top of the 4.75% policy rate starts to ease. Wednesday’s rally was basically this hope in price form.

4. The rest

• National government debt hit a record P19.07 trillion as of end-June — one of Friday’s excuses to sell
• A Pasig court issued a 20-day restraining order on the P85 Metro Manila minimum wage hike that was supposed to take effect July 25
• The PSEi’s index rebalancing takes effect next week; expect messy flows in individual names

Portfolio Summary (as of Friday’s close)

The portfolio sits at -12.85%, an improvement from last week’s -13.2% — against an index that fell 0.71%. That’s two straight weeks of beating the index in a down market. Though with Meralco detonating inside the portfolio, “won the week” feels generous. “Took the hit and stayed standing” is more honest.

The rescuers: Jollibee (+3.3%), Ayala Corp (+5.5%), and BDO (+1.2%) on its record earnings.

Progress toward the SIRV target (USD 75,000 in PSE-listed shares) is still hovering around 10%. The peso rebounding off its record low helped the dollar math a little this week, for once.

This Week’s Trades

Two buys on Thursday, July 30:

JFC — 10 shares @ P148.90 (about P1,489) DMC — 200 shares @ P7.40 (about P1,480)

The JFC purchase is the usual dividend-reinvestment routine: whenever dividends pile up, buy the minimum board lot of 10 shares. Average cost ticks down to P218.24. DMC was a contrarian add — average cost was P10.01, the stock trades at P7.40, and it’s a mining-and-energy-adjacent name that somehow isn’t benefiting from $100 oil. Averaged down to P9.36.

The Damage Report (biggest unrealized losses)

JGS (JG Summit) -36.8% FRUIT (Fruitas) -35.7% JFC (Jollibee) -32.1% ALI (Ayala Land) -30.8% SM (SM Investments) -30.5%

The thing I feared has happened: JGS, down another 6.5% this week with $100 oil crushing its petrochemical business, has overtaken perennial cellar-dweller Fruitas for the top spot. Meanwhile JFC improved from -34.6% to -32.1% on the price rebound plus the buy — sliding from second-worst to third, the one leaderboard demotion I’m happy about.

The Rescue Squad (biggest unrealized gains)

DD (DoubleDragon) +72.0% LTG (LT Group) +58.7% PSE (Philippine Stock Exchange) +24.9% MYNLD (Maynilad) +24.8% GLO (Globe Telecom) +23.0%

DD ground higher again to +72%. I’ve run out of things to say about it. The mover was PSE, up to third at P205 — the exchange’s own stock rallying ahead of the exchange’s own rebalancing event. A little too on-the-nose, but I’ll take it.

Stock Comments

MER (Meralco). Can’t avoid this one. It’s a tiny position — 20 shares — but it swung from +6.4% to -14.9% in five trading days. A 20% weekly drop is something I’ve never had inside this portfolio. Here’s the calmer view: scrapping the system loss charge requires Congress to amend EPIRA (the power industry reform law), the timeline and impact are completely undefined, Meralco’s own system loss is below the regulatory cap, and the company just posted a P26 billion first-half profit. This is a fear price, not a math price. The 20 shares stay put.

JFC (Jollibee) rebounded to P148.80 (+3.3%), back within sight of P150 as cooling inflation expectations gave restaurant stocks some breathing room. The dividend-reinvestment buy took the position to 660 shares. The 52-week high of P240-something is still a distant memory, but I’ve reached a comfortable mental place: if it falls, my scheduled buys get cheaper; if it rises, the paper loss shrinks. Either way, I win a little.

BDO (BDO Unibank) delivered the record half I’d hoped for, and the position climbed back into the green (+0.3%) for the first time in three weeks. Last week I wrote “if the numbers show up, it floats back up.” The numbers showed up.

🇵🇭 This Week’s Deep Dive: How Policy Risk Actually Feels

Last week’s theme was external risk — the US tariff. This week delivered the mirror image: domestic policy risk, experienced live in my own account.

Meralco’s 20% drop had nothing to do with earnings, management, or scandal. A single line in a speech did it. And the cruelest part: the proposal itself — cheaper electricity — is something I genuinely welcome as someone who wants to live in the Philippines. As a resident-to-be, I’m cheering. As a shareholder, I’m bleeding. That contradiction is emerging-market investing in its purest form.

Two lessons I’m writing down. First, regulated utilities (power, water, telecom) look stable precisely until policy moves — and my portfolio holds three of them (MER, MYNLD, GLO). The stability is real, but it’s borrowed from the regulator. Second, don’t sell into a headline. When neither the bill’s contents nor its timeline exist yet, the price is measuring fear, not cash flows. My cost of tuition for this lesson: about P1,670 in unrealized losses. Cheaper than most seminars.

Around ASEAN This Week

A quick lap around the neighborhood, because the Philippines wasn’t the only one having an eventful week:

• Hong Kong was the star: the Hang Seng jumped about 3.7% to 25,884 — on bad news. China’s manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2, but the Politburo signaled more policy support and tech got bought hard
• Vietnam’s VN-Index surged 2.9% to 1,735.78, shrugging off a Monday scare with a monster Thursday (+2.35%). An 8%-growth economy with a stock market to match, in both directions
• Malaysia’s KLCI rose 1.4% to 1,724.90 — June inflation at just 1.9% and the central bank guiding to the upper end of 4–5% growth. Quietly the healthiest macro mix in the region
• Singapore’s STI eased off record highs to 5,628.50 (+0.7% on the week) after MAS tightened policy for a second straight quarter — fighting inflation with a stronger currency, as only Singapore does
• Indonesia’s JCI added 0.6% despite the shock resignation of the central bank governor, though the rupiah is stuck in the 18,000s
• Thailand’s SET lost 1.3% in a holiday-shortened three-day week, with index heavyweight Delta Electronics tanking on earnings

The Philippines, with its 6%-ish inflation and a central bank still hiking, remains the region’s tough case — which is exactly why the entry prices look the way they do.

Beyond the PSE: A Note on the Bigger Picture

A reader asked how the PSE portfolio fits into everything else, so a brief note. My base currency is the yen, and the bulk of my assets sit in diversified, boring places — index funds and multi-currency holdings across Japanese institutions. The PSE portfolio you see in these posts is the disclosed, documented slice: the part with a mission (the SIRV) and a deadline (someday, Manila).

That structure is deliberate. When the peso hits a record low and my Philippine stocks are down 13%, the rest of the portfolio doesn’t care. It means I can hold JFC through a 32% drawdown and buy Meralco’s worst week with a shrug, because none of this money has a rent payment depending on it. Position sizing isn’t a risk technique so much as a sleep technique. This week, I slept fine.

What I’m Watching Next Week

• July inflation (out Aug 5): does it land inside the BSP’s 5.6–6.6% forecast? That sets up the August 27 policy meeting
• Q2 GDP and June jobs data — a full week of report cards
• The PSEi rebalancing takes effect; expect strange flows in individual names
• Any follow-through on the system loss charge in Congress — and Meralco’s reaction
• The peso holding the low-61s, and $100 oil

Final Thought

Two weeks of beating the index, a record bank profit, and yet the thing I’ll remember is watching a utility lose a fifth of its value because of a speech. The portfolio improved from -13.2% to -12.85%, JFC is back near P150, and I paid P1,670 in tuition to learn what policy risk feels like from the inside. Cheaper lessons don’t exist in this market. Slow and steady.

Disclaimer

This post documents a personal investment journal and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing in the Philippine stock market involves currency, country, and other risks. Invest at your own risk. Figures are as of the July 31, 2026 close.