PSEi Reclaims 6,000 with a 2.25% Weekly Gain, but the Peso Hits Three Record Lows — and Jollibee Announces a Hong Kong Spin-Off
Hi, this is PinchuTV — a Philippines addict slowly building a PSE portfolio on the long road to an SIRV (Special Investor’s Resident Visa) and a move to Manila. Here’s how the week went.
The PSEi This Week (August 31–September 4)
We got 6,000 back. Monday was a holiday (National Heroes Day), so it was a four-session week — and Tuesday opened with a bang: +2.31%. Last week’s four-day slide to 5,956.33 had left plenty of bargains, and a jump in the August manufacturing PMI to 54.9 gave buyers a reason to step in. The rest of the week was a series of small moves, capped by a Friday gain on softer August inflation (6.1%). The index closed at 6,090.60, up 134.27 points (+2.25%) — roughly half of last week’s 4.52% drop recovered.
Mon 8/31: Market closed (National Heroes Day) Tue 9/1: 6,093.89 (+2.31%) — bargain hunting plus a strong PMI print; ICTSI (+7.34%) alone accounted for about 80% of the index gain Wed 9/2: 6,053.23 (-0.67%) — the peso hit a new record low of 62.565 and the market gave some back Thu 9/3: 6,069.42 (+0.27%) — a breather for the peso, a modest gain ahead of the CPI release Fri 9/4: 6,090.60 (+0.35%) — August inflation eases to 6.1%; the peso, however, closes at yet another record low of 62.59
Previous Friday (8/28) close: 5,956.33 → this Friday (9/4): 6,090.60 (+134.27 points, +2.25%)
Tuesday’s rebound was led by banks and the port operator ICTSI, with BDO up 4.83% on the day. Ayala Land went the other way, dropping 3.35% into a broad rally — the “higher rates, avoid property” trade from last week hasn’t gone anywhere. Friday’s value turnover was a thin P3.47 billion, well below the three-month average of P5.99 billion. The bounce came on light volume.
The Big Stories
- August inflation eases to 6.1% — but rice is up 19.4%
Friday’s CPI print came in at 6.1%, down a notch from July’s 6.2%. That’s the fourth straight month of deceleration from April’s 7.2% peak and a five-month low, and it landed inside the BSP’s 5.5–6.5% forecast range. The market read it as “probably not getting worse from here.” But 6.1% is still one and a half times the top of the 2–4% target band, and the composition is uncomfortable: vegetables fell, while rice — the staple — accelerated to +19.4%. That’s a heavy number for households and for restaurant operators alike.
- Three record lows for the peso in one week
The peso broke new ground against the dollar on Tuesday (62.40), Wednesday (62.565), and Friday (62.59) — another 0.5% weaker than last Friday’s 62.265. For anyone holding Philippine stocks in dollars or yen, that’s the week in a nutshell: the index gained 2%, the currency gave back half a percent. Foreign banks are now penciling in a BSP pause in October and one more hike to 5.25% in December. The hiking cycle isn’t over.
- GCash parent Mynt gets SEC clearance for a P92.3 billion IPO
The SEC cleared the IPO of Mynt, the operator of the ubiquitous GCash e-wallet. The deal could raise up to P92.32 billion at an implied market cap of P668.96 billion, with listing set for October 20 — one of the largest IPOs in Philippine history. It’s a welcome jolt for a market that badly needed a story. One thing to keep in mind: ahead of a mega-IPO, investors often sell existing holdings to fund their allocation, so the supply-demand picture for the rest of the board could get heavier into October.
- Also this week
- Jollibee (JFC) formally announced plans to spin off its international business and list it in Hong Kong (more below)
- The BSP’s July business confidence survey plunged to -20.3% (from roughly neutral in June), even as the August PMI hit 54.9 — gloomy executives, busy factories
- A court issued an arrest warrant for Vice President Sara Duterte on Friday. Market reaction was muted, but political noise remains a background risk
Portfolio Summary (as of Friday’s close)
The portfolio (stocks only) stands at -14.17%, a 0.37-point improvement from last week’s -14.54%. Including the small mutual fund position and cash, the consolidated figure is -14.06%.
But let me be straight about it: I lost to the index this week. The portfolio’s market value rose roughly +0.44%, against +2.25% for the PSEi. The reason is obvious — the index was carried by ICTSI and the banks, while my largest position, JFC, went nowhere (150.00 → 151.00), and URC, PSE, and JGS all fell against the tide. Last week I wrote that beating the index in a down market doesn’t make you any money; this week, losing to it in an up market still made a little.
Progress toward the SIRV target (USD 75,000 in PSE-listed shares) is still around 10%. At 62.59 pesos to the dollar, the target now works out to roughly P4.69 million, up from P4.67 million last week. Stocks recover, the peso slips, the goalposts move.
No trades this week.
The Damage Report (biggest unrealized losses)
FRUIT (Fruitas) -37.6% JGS (JG Summit) -37.5% ALI (Ayala Land) -36.4% SM (SM Investments) -34.3% JFC (Jollibee) -30.8%
Same five names. JGS deteriorated from -35.5% to -37.5% and is now neck and neck with Fruitas for the unwanted top spot. Its first-half results (released in August) showed core net income down 37%, with Cebu Pacific posting a loss on jet fuel costs and FX losses on dollar debt — oil up, peso down, both hitting the same conglomerate. ALI was sold 3.35% on Tuesday’s rally day and slipped into the -36% range; last week’s “maybe it’s sold out” comment was premature. SM was the one bright spot, up 1.7%.
The Rescue Squad (biggest unrealized gains)
DD (DoubleDragon) +74.9% LTG (LT Group) +64.3% PSE (Philippine Stock Exchange) +25.5% MYNLD (Maynilad) +24.0% AP (Aboitiz Power) +13.3%
Same names, same order. PSE — which I called my “volatility insurance” last week — behaved exactly like insurance: the market calmed down, turnover shrank to 60% of the three-month average on Friday, and PSE fell 2.7% (211.80 → 206.00). DD held flat at 12.14, keeping the gain near +75%. Globe closed at 1,610, down 1.2% on the week.
Notable Moves (week-on-week)
Up
BPI 100.00 → 105.40 (+5.40, +5.4%) — the week’s top gainer, unwinding last week’s bank selloff BDO 116.00 → 120.90 (+4.90, +4.2%) — +4.83% on Tuesday alone; the position improves from -6.5% to -2.6% SM 552.6 → 562.00 (+1.7%) / AP 44.73 → 45.30 (+1.3%) / AC 495.00 → 500.00 (+1.0%) JFC 150.00 → 151.00 (+1.00, +0.7%) — touched 152.80 on Tuesday before fading
Soft
URC 60.95 → 58.70 (-2.25, -3.7%) — the week’s worst; no specific news, just consumer names under pressure PSE 211.80 → 206.00 (-5.80, -2.7%) — thin volume, lower fees JGS 21.17 → 20.60 (-2.7%) / ALI 15.48 → 15.28 (-1.3%) / GLO 1,630 → 1,610 (-1.2%)
Note: I don’t have last Friday’s closes for AREIT, DMC, RCR, SHNG, and SSI, so their weekly moves are omitted.
Stock Comments
JFC (Jollibee) closed at P151.00, with the position at -30.8%. The stock popped to 152.80 on Tuesday after the Hong Kong spin-off announcement, then faded through the back half of the week. The price barely moved, but in terms of what the company is becoming, this was the biggest news of the year. More below. The plan is unchanged: every time dividends pile up, I buy 10 more shares.
BDO (BDO Unibank) finished at P120.90, -2.6%. From -6.5% last week, Tuesday’s +4.83% pulled most of that back in one session. Last week the market sold banks on “hikes will slow loan growth”; this week it bought them on “oversold.” Sentiment on the banks flipped in seven days. BPI (+5.4%) was the week’s top gainer and is one good day from breakeven.
URC (Universal Robina) closed at P58.70, -3.7% and the week’s worst, with the position at -25.2%. There was no company-specific news; I read it as payback for last Friday’s counter-trend gain (+1.6%) and the general weight on consumer names from inflation and the weak peso. For a food manufacturer that imports much of its raw materials, a record-low peso is never welcome.
🇵🇭 This Week’s Deep Dive: Jollibee’s International Spin-Off, from a Shareholder’s Seat
Last week I covered JFC’s lowered store-opening targets. This week’s news is bigger.
On Tuesday, JFC formally announced plans to carve out its international business — Jollibee Foods Corporation International (JFCI) — and list it on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. A US listing had been the original idea; the company said it chose Hong Kong for brand recognition and investor depth in Asia. The international arm includes The Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf, Taiwan’s bubble tea chain Milksha, China’s Yonghe King, and Smashburger in the US, and it grew 25% year-on-year in Q2 — faster than the Philippine business.
Three things I’m watching as a holder.
First, what exactly will I own? How existing shareholders participate in the new entity — whether shares are distributed, and on what terms — has not been announced. What’s certain is that the domestic Jollibee and the international business will be valued separately: the “home-market fast-food king” and the “Asian growth story” pulled apart.
Second, the balance sheet. As I wrote last week, JFC has been funding its overseas expansion with debt, with long-term borrowings up to P33.4 billion. If the international business can raise its own capital in Hong Kong, the parent’s debt burden lightens. In a 5% policy-rate world, that matters.
Third, the market’s verdict. The stock rose 1.87% on announcement day, then gave it all back — flat on the week. “Good idea, but still just a plan” is roughly where sentiment sits.
As a shareholder sitting on a -31% position, my honest worry is that once the international growth engine is carved out, what’s left is a domestic business taking the full brunt of inflation and 19% rice prices. The counter-argument is that a separate listing will make the value of the international business visible — and show how little of it today’s share price reflects. Which way it goes depends on the terms. The plan stays the same; I’ll wait for the details.
What I’m Watching Next Week
- Will the peso cross 63? Watch for BSP or government intervention signals
- Foreign flows: after last week’s heavy net selling (P3.51 billion on Friday 8/28), has the tide turned enough to hold 6,000?
- Further details on the JFC spin-off — distribution mechanics and listing timeline
- Positioning ahead of the GCash (Mynt) IPO in October; any funding-driven selling of existing names
- US-Iran tensions and oil, and US rate-hike odds into the September 16 FOMC
Final Thought
6,000 is back, but the peso set three record lows in a week. The index rose 2.25%; my portfolio rose 0.4%. “The market recovered, mine didn’t quite” — a slightly left-behind feeling this week. Still, BDO and BPI bounced the way banks should, and Jollibee delivered the kind of news that changes what the company is, even if the stock hasn’t noticed yet. Some weeks the company moves before the price does. Slow and steady.
Disclaimer
This post documents a personal investment journal and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing in the Philippine stock market involves currency, country, and other risks. Invest at your own risk. Figures are as of the September 4, 2026 close.